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Summary for Violence & security. Paradigms and debates (FY) midterm exam
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Lecture 1.Therese Pettersson et al.: Organized violence 1989–2020, with a special emphasis on
Syria
The hopes that the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to reduced violence had long been
crushed as 2020 came to an end.
UCDP data shows that the falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized
violence in the world, witnessed every year since the latest peak in 2014, broke
upwards in 2020.
The two largest wars of the past decade, Afghanistan and Syria, both de-escalated
in 2020.
At the same time, violence in other areas escalated as old tensions flared up in
conflicts such as the one over government power in Ethiopia.
In recent years, there has been a clear regional shift from the Middle East to Africa
now driving the trend in organized violence.
The first section of this article presents recent trends in three types of organized
violence, focusing particularly on events in 2020.
The second section takes a closer look at Syria, home to the bloodiest conflicts of the
21st century.
State-based armed conflict 1946–2020
UCDP documented a record-high number of state-based armed conflicts in 2020, after
observing a slowly rising trend for several years.
In 2020, 56 armed conflicts were active around the world.
This is the highest number recorded in the post-1946 period.
The year 2020 also saw several examples of escalating violence in conflicts that had
been inactive for years.
o The border conflict between China and India had not been active since
1967, but lethal skirmishes erupted in the Galwan Valley in June 2020.
o In February 2021, after several rounds of talks between the two nations, they
agreed to pull back their troops from some of the border areas.
o In Azerbaijan, the separatist conflict against the Republic of Artsakh had
been inactive since 2017.
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, o In mid-2020, tension between the parties escalated, followed by heavy
fighting.
In general, Africa drives the growth in the number of active conflicts.
Most of the increase was due to conflicts restarting after having been inactive for a
few years, but one conflict, Tanzania: Islamic State, was completely new in 2020,
and another, Ethiopia: Government, had not been active since 1991.
Africa is now home to more than half of all state-based armed conflicts in the world.
In 2019, much of the increase in the number of conflicts was due to IS (Islamic State)
moving into new areas.
In 2020, only one new conflict arose in this way as escalating violence carried out by
IS in Mozambique spread to Tanzania.
The prevalence of internationalization of conflicts, where one or both sides in the
conflict receive troop support from an external state, remained high in 2020.
Moreover, UCDP recorded three interstate conflicts in 2020.
While this is only 5% of the total number of active conflicts, we have not seen as
many active interstate conflicts since 1988.
In the beginning of 2020, the world was hoping for a reduction in violence in the face of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Following the appeal from UN Secretary-General for a global ceasefire, in March
2020, several ceasefires were announced around the world.
Most of them, however, failed to halt the fighting.
The trend of decreasing numbers of battle-deaths, witnessed every year since the peak
in 2014, did indeed continue in 2020.
However, the decline was minor and largely driven by two cases, Syria and
Afghanistan.
In both these cases, the reduction of violence was caused by factors other than the
pandemic.
In Syria, violence has plummeted since 2013–14, the most violent years of the civil wars.
The situation has evolved from a countrywide war to a frozen situation with a few
regional hotspots.
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, The conflict with IS, however, intensified in 2020, despite the reported defeat of the
group in 2019.
Although IS has lost all territory it previously held in Syria, it continues to carry out
attacks against both security forces and civilians.
In Afghanistan, violence had been rising steadily since 2013.
In 2020, however, fatalities decreased substantially.
The main reasons are the peace process and the drastic drop in airstrikes carried
out by the USA in support of Afghan forces.
Following 18 months of negotiations, the Taliban signed an agreement with the
USA, which provided for a complete withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan
and the start of intra-Afghan talks.
When intra-Afghan talks finally started in September, however, violence had begun to
increase again.
Escalating violence in the face of periods of peace talks can be used as a way of
strengthening one’s negotiating position, and this could potentially explain the
Taliban escalation of violence.
The peace talks failed to yield any significant progress as the deadline for full US
troop withdrawal was approaching.
Failing to result in de-escalation, the COVID-19 pandemic was in fact the driving force
behind some conflicts flaring up in 2020.
In DR Congo, two conflicts escalated again following protests against the responses
to the pandemic by the Congolese government.
Eight conflicts reached the intensity level of war in 2020.
Syria: Islamic State escalated in 2020 and reached the intensity of war after a one-year
lull.
Additionally, two conflicts that were not even active in 2019 were added to the list
following heavy fighting during the second half of the year; Azerbaijan: Artsakh and
Ethiopia: Government.
In Afghanistan, the conflict against IS de-escalated below the level of war for the first
time since 2015.
The eight wars accounted for 80% of all battle-related deaths recorded in 2020.
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, Non-state conflict 1989–2020
Non-state conflict increased in 2020, in terms of both the number of active conflicts and the
number of deaths incurred in fighting between non-state groups.
In total, these conflicts resulted in at least 23,100 fatalities.
The past seven years are in fact the bloodiest ones in non-state violence in the period
covered by the UCDP data.
The trend of decreasing violence in the Middle East is also visible when looking at
non-state conflict.
In this case, however, the Americas have replaced the Middle East as the worst hit
region.
The development in the latter is remarkable.
Mexico is now driving the trend in non-state conflict, as the country witnessed
almost 16,300 fatalities in 2020.
Mexican and US counter-drug efforts to remove cartel leaders have increased cartel
fragmentation and in-fighting.
Research on civil wars shows that increased fragmentation is associated with
increased violence, including targeting of civilians and fighting between
organizations.
One-sided violence 1989–2020
UCDP recorded 39 actors carrying out one-sided violence in 2020. This is the highest number
noted since 2004.
The increase in the number of actors was accompanied by an increase in the
number of killings registered, almost 7,700 in 2020 compared to just over 5,000 in
2019.
However, fatalities remain lower than in many years of the 2010s.
Just as in state-based violence, Africa is the main area of concern.
This recent trend can be partly explained by the continuation of the regional shift of
IS from the Middle East to Africa, as 2020 witnessed large-scale killings of
civilians by IS in Mozambique and DR Congo.
In Mozambique, one-sided violence went hand in hand with the escalating state-
based conflict.
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